V. Yermakov, an expert at CCEIS, wrote an article for the Valdai International Discussion Club on Russian gas supplies to Europe amid the crisis. Key ideas: <br />• Despite the fighting in Ukraine and an avalanche of Western sanctions, Russia continues to supply gas to Europe without interruptions;<br />• After a decline in January, gas supplies to Europe from Russia returned to their previous level in February and even increased in the first ten days of March;<br />• Gas transit through Ukraine was not disrupted even by fightings;• Over the past two years, the European gas market has gone from a supply surplus to a crisis caused by supply constraints (exacerbated by events in Ukraine), driving up prices;<br />• For over 50 years, Russia-Europe gas relationship has been underpinned by the concept of cooperatively managed interdependence producing mutual benefits, but it cannot remain immune to the increasing geopolitical animosity between the great powers and the emergence of extreme bargaining positions; <br />• Gazprom's existing production capacity is sufficient to meet the company's obligations under long-term export contracts and cover seasonal peak in domestic demand, but investment in new capacity is required to meet additional new demand;<br />• Prior to the start of the special operation, Gazprom took a wait-and-see attitude, making it clear that without guarantees of demand there would be no major investments;<br />• There is a reorientation of gas supplies to Asian markets, and the launch of a special operation reinforces the need for a “pivot to the East”

Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the CCEIS, analyzed Russia's policy in the context of the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in an interview for Fox News. Key ideas:<br />-The mood in Moscow absolutely does not correspond to the image of the capital of a country preparing for a large-scale military invasion.<br />-Russia uses the demonstration of military power as a tool to achieve its goals through diplomacy.<br />-If Ukraine decentralizes, as required by the Minsk agreements, it will be more difficult for Kyiv to join Western unions since Ukrainian nationalism will be opposed by the population of Russian-speaking regions.<br />-Russia is not interested in de-escalating until its security guarantee demands on NATO are accepted.

Key points:  <br />1. Russia considers the NSR a strategic economic priority since it is instrumental for suppling Russian northern territories. Its importance has grown in the past few years with the expansion of Russia’s oil and gas projects in the Arctic. The NSR allows to monetize vast oil and gas resources located near the coastline and transport them economically to target markets. <br />2. The realistic possibilities for the NSR to develop into a major trade artery to Asia. The NSR is an Arctic shortcut that saves time and reduces transportation costs on a route between Europe and Asia. But it is necessary to take into account that navigation in Arctic seas is still difficult and it could cause significant risks for ships. Russia is trying to increase its Arctic capabilities by building a new generation of powerful nuclear icebreakers and Arctic class ice-resistant tankers. Initially, Russian exports of oil, condensate, and LNG are going to represent the lion’s share of the transportation turnover via the NSR. When year-round navigation via the NSR becomes a reality, international transit might increase as well.  <br />3. The NSR and its geopolitical implications.  In a world of increasing global rivalries, Russia’s control over a major trade route connecting Europe and Asia is an asset. Unlike other marine routes to Asia that could be controlled by the US Navy, the NSR emerges as an important factor in the Russia-China relationship.

Deputy Head of the CCEIS Asia-Pacific Sector A. S. Pyatachkova commented in Bloomberg on the state of Russian-Chinese relations on the eve of the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Key points:<br />- Cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is a strategic challenge for the Joe Biden administration;<br />-The aggravation of relations with the West encourages Russia to speed up cooperation with China, especially in the technological sphere, which is subject to sanctions pressure;<br />-Too much emphasis on economic relations with China could risk relegating Russia to the status of an energy and raw materials supplier to a much stronger partner;<br />-The imbalance of economic power could cause difficulties in bilateral relations if China refuses to perceive Russia as a partner with a special status and tries to put pressure on it.

Egor Prokhin, a research fellow of the CCEIS, presented a report titled “The role of technological platforms in the innovative development of Industrial enterprises" on January 17, at the 13th international conference "E-Education, E-business, E-Management, E-Learning", held at Waseda University in Tokyo.<br /><br />Within the report’s framework, the results of the analysis of the experience of the main trends in the innovative development of industry in the Asia-Pacific countries were presented, and the economic and managerial effectiveness of new development models was assessed.

Miras Zhiyenbayev, CCEIS Fellow, wrote an article on aspects of Chinese pandemic diplomacy and competition between Russia and China for influence in Central Asia for the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs. Key ideas:<br />- The global pandemic has exacerbated the economic and political problems of the Central Asia states. The situation in Central Asia provides opportunities for both China and Russia to consolidate their influence over the foreign and domestic policies of Central Asian countries.<br />- The economic strength of China provides the opportunity for China to use investments of private Chinese firms to establish cooperation with Central Asian governments through international organizations such as the SCO.<br />- Another opportunity afforded to China is the shift towards internal aspects of the national security caused by the pandemic. Some Central Asian governments are interested in Chinese surveillance technologies. The CA countries will have to continue to buy from China, without the ability to control their own technologies and develop their own rules.<br />- While the prospects of the economic dependence of CA countries from China are becoming ever more real, the existing cultural tensions will be the source of social instability. Russia still exerts huge amount of “soft power”, which allows to Russian government to use media to denigrate China’s activities in the region.

Lev Sokolshchik, an Associate Professor of the School of International Regional Studies, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) took part in the second ACONA Boot Camp (January 10-14, 2022) as a member of the organizing team and a supervisor of the international research group focused on the prospects for concluding a new arms control treaty. The activities at the camp included a series of presentations of the scientific projects' results of the ACONA fellows, discussions with the world’s leading experts in the fields of international relations and arms control, master classes, and exercises to develop negotiation skills.

Associate Director of Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies Dmitriy Suslov expressed his opinion on tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in an article for the New York Times magazine. Basic ideas:<br />-A hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine would not undermine the security of the United States <br />-The overall logic of Russian actions is that it is the U.S. and NATO that must pay a high price<br />-Beyond a more threatening Russian military posture, the United States would be particularly sensitive to closer military cooperation between Russia and China. <br />-The United States does not want to increase its military presence in Europe, as this would be done at the cost of containing China

Main ideas:       <br />- The purpose of the alliance between China and Russia is national development and ensuring the security of the countries<br />- Regional cooperation institutions will retain their importance for Russia <br />- The main challenge for the Russian Federation is the transformation of neighboring countries into a territorial military base of global powers <br />- Russian policy in Eurasia is aimed at building relations with the medium and small states.

Egor Prokhin, a postdoc at the Faculty of World Economics and World Politics, and a research fellow at the CCEIS, became the winner of the regional finals of the “Leaders of Russia” national management contest on the track “Business and Industry”  in the Central Federal District, the flagship project of the presidential platform “Russia - the Country of Opportunities”.

On December 21, 2021, the School of International Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE Universityorganized a meeting with Dr. Lev Sokolshchik, Associate Professor of the School of International Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE Universityas part of a series of online seminars "Contemporary Area Studies".

The CCEIS invites senior students, undergraduates, and graduate students to apply for an internship at the CCEIS. The program will be interesting for students of international relations, world economy, area and oriental studies, law, history. Interns will participate in applied projects and in the development of new fundamental research.

On December 11^th, Vitaly Yermakov, CCEIS expert, spoke at the RAND Business Leaders Forum. <br />Vitaly’s topic was “COP-26 and Russia”, and his main points were as follows: <br />- The results of COP-26 have demonstrated that the tradeoffs between growth and climate mitigation are real and difficult causing the international politics of climate change to lead to disunity in case of a radical and hasty transition. <br />- An attempt to shift the policy agenda at COP-26 away from demand-side measures to supply-side pressure and restrictions, declaring coal the main “enemy” and casting any investment incentives for hydrocarbons as “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” has run into the opposition of the developing countries that need to address energy poverty and maintain economic growth. <br />- Power crunch in China and gas crunch in Europe are powerful reminders that energy transition is going to be costly and volatile and is going to lead to political upheavals. <br />- Elections will be lost by politicians who placed their bets on the green agenda but failed to deliver energy security. <br />- Russia’s energy strategy is evolving in response to climate change agenda but the official documents like ES-2035 are outdated and are no longer relevant. Russia’s recent policy guidance suggests the readiness for course corrections but also the intent to protect its vital interests. This results in pragmatic approach to energy transition based on Russia’s strategic strengths and free of ideological dogmas. At the same time, Russia’s leadership has realized that it must be actively involved in shaping the global climate agenda. Russia’s pledge of reaching net zero by 2060 will be achieved via a combination of processes, involving energy efficiency, greater role of natural gas combined with CCUS followed by a gradual introduction of hydrogen, new generation of nuclear, and increasing the absorption capacity of Russia’s forests.

On November 24, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies published a new research paper by CCEIS' expert Vitaly Yermakov and Anastasia Yermakova -The Northern Sea Route: A state priority in Russia's strategy of delivering Arctic hydrocarbons to global markets.

Deputy Director of the CCEIS Dmitry Suslov described a new direction for the development of U.S. foreign policy focusing on Biden's historical role as a follower of Trump. However, Biden is using a more systematic approach to implementing the chosen paradigm than his predecessor.<br />The main theses:<br />- We see a rejection of the universalization of the American-centric world order- Change of the vector of U.S. foreign policy development to rivalry with global rivals - China and Russia, which later became a new paradigm<br />- The previous foreign policy course has been replaced by a struggle against transnational threats and changing rhetoric towards European allies to a more benevolent one<br />- The leading U.S. forces are aimed at deterring China, consolidating the anti-Chinese coalition, weakening the trend of rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing, and confrontation with Russia<br />- The U.S. strives to increase its presence, circle of partners, and military and political obligations in Asia

On the 18th of November, the CCEIS held the presentation of the book “Eurasianism. An Ideology for the Multipolar World” by Dr. Paolo Pizzolo, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the CCEIS, HSE University. In his presentation, Dr. Pizzolo examined the doctrine of Eurasianism from a geopolitical, strategic, and philosophical point of view and presented to the audience a historical digression into the history of this idea. He also described in detail an international order based on the principles of multipolarity and alterglobalism, to which the concept of Eurasianism could lead.

The CCEIS is happy to share some crucial news. Director of the CCEIS Anastasia Likhacheva has been appointed Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics. Vasily Kashin is now the new director of the CCEIS. He is a leading Sinologist, an expert on military-strategic issues, the former deputy director of the CCEIS, and the head of the sector of international military-political and military-economic issues. At the CCEIS, Vasily Kashin was in charge of multiple applied research projects. He also led a team of employees and postdocs, which launched a series of regular monitoring sessions on various aspects of China's development.

On 8-9 November 2021, in virtual format was held Global Energy Conference by JP Morgan. Vitaly Yermakov, the CCEIS Expert, has participated in it and spoke about the causes and solutions of Europe's gas crunch.

On October 27, an online presentation of the book by Professor Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan) was held by the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) in cooperation with the Department of World Economy of the Higher School of Economics. The presentation was dedicated to revealing the phenomenon of the Chinese export miracle through the prism of global value chains. The discussion touched upon the issues of the Chinese experience for emerging economies, the current realities of economic cycles, and the factor of US-China decoupling and its impact on the global economy.

On October 16, a research fellow of the CCEIS, Egor Prokhin, presented  his report in the 5th International Conference on E-Business and Internet entitled «Technology Breakthrough 4.0: Public Policy as an Integral Element of a Smart City's Development» held at the National University of Singapore. Egor Prokhin’s presentation has been recognized as the best in its section.