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VitalyYermakov participated in the panel Diplomatic Energy Club-Croatia / EU Online, moderated by ProfDaria Karasalihović Sedlar
Vitaly’s key points:
- The finalization of Nord Stream 2 construction, now imminent, marks the success of Russia's strategy of minimizing the risks of third country transit.
- This strategy stems from the fundamental changes in the geography of Russian gas supply and the new configuration of Russian pipelines that connect new productive capacity on Yamal with the target market of Germany with the shortest possible route through the northern regions of Russia and via Nord Streams.
- Conversely, the irreversible decline of gas production in Russia's legacy fields in Nadym-Pur-Taz and ageing pipeline infrastructure leading towards Ukraine create constraints on future transit flows through Ukraine.
- The characterization of Nord Stream 2 as a "redundant" pipeline fails to consider these important facts and leads to false expectations regarding the future role of Ukrainian transit.
Vitaly’s key points:
- The finalization of Nord Stream 2 construction, now imminent, marks the success of Russia's strategy of minimizing the risks of third country transit.
- This strategy stems from the fundamental changes in the geography of Russian gas supply and the new configuration of Russian pipelines that connect new productive capacity on Yamal with the target market of Germany with the shortest possible route through the northern regions of Russia and via Nord Streams.
- Conversely, the irreversible decline of gas production in Russia's legacy fields in Nadym-Pur-Taz and ageing pipeline infrastructure leading towards Ukraine create constraints on future transit flows through Ukraine.
- The characterization of Nord Stream 2 as a "redundant" pipeline fails to consider these important facts and leads to false expectations regarding the future role of Ukrainian transit.





Two discussants participated in the online presentation: Vasily Kashin, CCEIS Deputy Director, and Maxim Suchkov, Director of the Center for Advanced American Studies, Institute of International Studies, MGIMO-University


Key ideas:
- Involvement of a new state into the integration processes can become an excuse for the EAEU’s slowdown, allow it to acquit the inability to build common markets with the accession of a new member-state, the subsequent periods of stagnation, or even rollback.
- Enlargement, following the European Union example, can contribute to the resolution of conceptual issues of further EAEU’s development.
- The involvement of a new participant means for the EAEU, on the one hand, the need for ultra-precise manual reconfiguration and possible revision of existing agreements due to the inclusion of a sizeable Eurasian economy. On the other hand, the Union recognizes the significance of the current reality and the impossibility of the final formation of single markets in such a limited time due to the need to adapt to reality with new project participants.
- Uzbekistan will solve a significant number of long-lasting internal development problems. The current EAEU members will gain no less significant benefits from Uzbekistan’s possible accession to the Union.
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Head of the project is Vasily Kashin, Head of the CCEIS International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems Sector.
