Scientific seminar "Enhancing Confidence and Security through Military-Political and Military-Technical Cooperation between Russia and Brazil within BRICS"
A scientific seminar "Enhancing Confidence and Security through Military-Political and Military-Technical Cooperation between Russia and Brazil within BRICS" was held on June 30. The seminar was dedicated to military-political and military-technical cooperation between Russia and Brazil, as well as the development of confidence-building measures and security in bilateral relations and within BRICS. Participants discussed the creation of a consensus-based security framework based on trust-building measures and human security, as well as the possibility of extending this concept to other BRICS countries.
On May 10th, a scientific seminar was held on the topic of “Foreign and Domestic Policy of Mongolia at the Present Stage”, which focused on analyzing the impact of great power rivalry in the region on Mongolia's domestic politics and diplomacy.
Nikita Potashev held a lecture "Institutional Limitations of the Russian-Chinese Cooperation in the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Arctic Zone"
Nikita Potashev, the CCEIS researcher, delivered a lecture at the Institute of Russia, Tsinghua University (Beijing, China) on the topic “Institutional Limitations of the Russian-Chinese Cooperation in the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Arctic Zone”. The lecture focused on the trade and economic relations between Russia and China in the peripheral regions of the two countries, the existing restrictions on bilateral cooperation and tools to overcome these barriers. The staff of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences took part in the question-and-answer session.
Year One of the Biden Administration: U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Russia - new article by L.M. Sokolshchik
Lev Sokolshchik, an associate professor of the School of International Regional Studies and research fellow of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), has published an article in the Journal of Eurasian Studies. The paper addresses the following key issues:
- How has Russia’s place in U.S. foreign policy changed under the Biden administration?
- What factors have contributed to increased confrontation between the United States and Russia under the Biden administration?
- What factors limited U.S. foreign policy ambitions towards Russia, as well as any negotiation opportunities?
- Where was cooperation possible between the United States and Russia, and where were disputes inevitable?
Lev Sokolshchik, an associate professor of the School of International Regional Studies and research fellow of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), as an invited expert and advisor of the international research group participated in the Boot Camp of the Arms Control Negotiations Academy (ACONA). The event held from January 09 to 13 in the online format.
"Capital Ideas" portal published an article titled "Restrictive measures against Russia: What's next?", in which L.M. Sokolshchik, an associate professor of the School of International Regional Studies and research fellow of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), shared his opinion on the future of Western sanctions policy.
-The key trend of 2022 was the imposition against Russia of restrictive measures unprecedented in scale and number. According to the Castellum.AI project, in the period from February 22 to November 22, 2022, 10,184 sanctions were imposed against Russia, almost four times higher than the number of sanctions imposed on Moscow in the previous period.
-Western sanctions against Russia include a wide range of restrictive measures: blocking sanctions, sectoral sanctions, financial restrictions, export controls of goods and services, visa and diplomatic restrictions, transport sanctions, and disconnection of a number of financial institutions from the SWIFT system.
-The withdrawal of companies from the Russian market, the so-called “culture of cancellation” of Russia, and the curtailment of humanitarian ties for political reasons are fully consistent with the general trend of anti-Russian sanctions, and bolster it.
-Despite the wide range and impressive number of restrictions already imposed against Russia, there are risks of further escalation, including: building up enforcement measures, possible strengthening of the anti-Russian sanctions coalition.
-Thanks to the timely and effective decisions of the financial and economic authorities, Russia is quite successfully adapting to large-scale sanctions pressure.
-Many consumers in the world cannot refuse Russian energy, food and raw material exports, and some (for example, China and India), on the contrary are increasing supplies from Russia.l
-Moscow has managed to diversify imports through use of non-Western suppliers and the introduction of parallel imports.
-Under the current conditions, the transformation of the Russian economy is inevitable. The main vector of this will be aimed at strengthening the processes of digital transition, creating our own financial and technological platforms, reorienting export flows to friendly countries, and finding ways to cooperate with non-Western partners.
-An important factor will be the systematically organized import substitution of technologies and components in a number of key sectors of the Russian economy.
V. Kashin and L. Sokolshchik took part in the first scientific and educational camp of ACONA 2022/23 academic year
Director of CCEIS V. Kashin as a speaker and associate professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies, researcher of CCEIS L. Sokolshchik, as an invited expert, took part in the first scientific and educational camp of the Academy of Arms Control Negotiations (ACONA), which was held from August 15 to 19 in an online format. The start of a new cycle of the project was preceded by a lot of preparatory work. For almost three months in the weekly mode L. Sokolshchik together with colleagues from MGIMO, Harvard University, the Woodrow Wilson Center, the Frankfurt Peace Institute, and the University of Iceland, participated in the formation of the program and the content of the camp events. During the camp, discussions, master classes and speeches by leading world experts in the field of strategic stability and global security, trainings on conducting international negotiations and resolving the most pressing issues of modern international relations were organized for project participants from the USA, Russia, Europe, Asia during the camp.
“Weaponizing Energy: The Pandora’s Box Is Wide Open” – an expert commentary by Vitaly Ermakov for the Valdai Club
CCEIS expert Vitaly Ermakov gave a commentary to the Valdai International Discussion Club where analyzed the energy policy of Russia and Western countries. Key ideas:
-Energy trade has been the backbone of the overall economic relationship between Russia and the West, especially Europe, but now it appears that this era is ending;
-Amid the uncertainty about who will pay for the restoration of Ukraine, the plans to confiscate Russia’s export earnings have emerged;
-An import tariff on the Russian energy export and schemes with escrow accounts in Western banks are among those plans;
-The EU introduces and considers additional tough measures to reduce Russia's energy exports: an embargo on Russian coal supplies is already in place from August 10, 2022, an oil embargo is being discussed, and plans are being worked out to phase out Russian gas;
-Due to the inelasticity of supply and demand in the energy markets, the interdependence of Russia and Europe cannot be eliminated by directives;
-The introduction of the “gas for rubles” scheme by Russia was a pragmatic response to attempts to control export revenues from the EU, the rejection of this scheme by PGNiG and Bulgargaz has already led to a halt in direct gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria;
-The discussed oil embargo against Russia or problems with the "gas for rubles" scheme could trigger a series of extreme disasters, politicians are raising the stakes in an energy game that could get out of hand
CCEIS took the 2nd place in the “TOP-20 scientific and expert departments of the National Research University Higher School of Economics according to MediaIndex”.
«Russia and China Expand Their Gas Relationship: Causes and Implications» - V. Ermakov's article for the Valdai International Discussion Club
V. Ermakov, a CCEIS expert, analyzed the prospects for the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the gas sector in an article for the Valdai International discussion club.Main points:
·In the new reality Europe is going to reduce its energy dependence on Russia as soon as possible and regardless of collateral damage;
·Russia must accelerate its Pivot to the East, which makes China a clear winner since it would be able to use the situation to get Russian oil and gas at discounted prices;
·In order to diversify their foreign trade options Moscow and Beijing have accepted a package of commercial contracts for the supply of Russian oil and gas;
·China’s gas consumption is growing, and according to estimates, its own production by 2030 will be able to cover only half of the future increase in demand. That is why the deal now is more relevant than ever.
·Gas supplies via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline with the addition of gas from the Russian Far East will give Gazprom a competitive edge compared with other importers in the northern and eastern provinces of China.
·Russia and China continue to negotiate a new giant contract on gas supplies from Yamal, and both sides have demonstrated a pragmatic acceptance of a possibility to include third-party transit (via Mongolia) into their plans.