«Pandemic Diplomacy: China’s Role in Central Asia in the Era of Covid-19» –Miras Zhiyenbayev for the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs.
Miras Zhiyenbayev, CCEIS Fellow, wrote an article on aspects of Chinese pandemic diplomacy and competition between Russia and China for influence in Central Asia for the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs. Key ideas:
- The global pandemic has exacerbated the economic and political problems of the Central Asia states. The situation in Central Asia provides opportunities for both China and Russia to consolidate their influence over the foreign and domestic policies of Central Asian countries.
- The economic strength of China provides the opportunity for China to use investments of private Chinese firms to establish cooperation with Central Asian governments through international organizations such as the SCO.
- Another opportunity afforded to China is the shift towards internal aspects of the national security caused by the pandemic. Some Central Asian governments are interested in Chinese surveillance technologies. The CA countries will have to continue to buy from China, without the ability to control their own technologies and develop their own rules.
- While the prospects of the economic dependence of CA countries from China are becoming ever more real, the existing cultural tensions will be the source of social instability. Russia still exerts huge amount of “soft power”, which allows to Russian government to use media to denigrate China’s activities in the region.
HSE University, Harvard University, and other partner organizations have completed the Second Boot Camp of the Arms Control Negotiation Academy (ACONA)
Lev Sokolshchik, an Associate Professor of the School of International Regional Studies, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) took part in the second ACONA Boot Camp (January 10-14, 2022) as a member of the organizing team and a supervisor of the international research group focused on the prospects for concluding a new arms control treaty. The activities at the camp included a series of presentations of the scientific projects' results of the ACONA fellows, discussions with the world’s leading experts in the fields of international relations and arms control, master classes, and exercises to develop negotiation skills.
“Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion” – Dmitriy Suslov about Ukrainian problem
Associate Director of Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies Dmitriy Suslov expressed his opinion on tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in an article for the New York Times magazine. Basic ideas:
-A hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine would not undermine the security of the United States
-The overall logic of Russian actions is that it is the U.S. and NATO that must pay a high price
-Beyond a more threatening Russian military posture, the United States would be particularly sensitive to closer military cooperation between Russia and China.
-The United States does not want to increase its military presence in Europe, as this would be done at the cost of containing China
"Asia and Eurasia in a Multipolar World" - an article by T. Bordachev for the Valdai Discussion Club
- The purpose of the alliance between China and Russia is national development and ensuring the security of the countries
- Regional cooperation institutions will retain their importance for Russia
- The main challenge for the Russian Federation is the transformation of neighboring countries into a territorial military base of global powers
- Russian policy in Eurasia is aimed at building relations with the medium and small states.
Egor Prokhin, a postdoc at the Faculty of World Economics and World Politics, and a research fellow at the CCEIS, became the winner of the regional finals of the “Leaders of Russia” national management contest on the track “Business and Industry” in the Central Federal District, the flagship project of the presidential platform “Russia - the Country of Opportunities”.
On December 21, 2021, the School of International Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE Universityorganized a meeting with Dr. Lev Sokolshchik, Associate Professor of the School of International Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE Universityas part of a series of online seminars "Contemporary Area Studies".
The CCEIS invites senior students, undergraduates, and graduate students to apply for an internship at the CCEIS. The program will be interesting for students of international relations, world economy, area and oriental studies, law, history. Interns will participate in applied projects and in the development of new fundamental research.
On December 11th, Vitaly Yermakov, CCEIS expert, spoke at the RAND Business Leaders Forum.
Vitaly’s topic was “COP-26 and Russia”, and his main points were as follows:
- The results of COP-26 have demonstrated that the tradeoffs between growth and climate mitigation are real and difficult causing the international politics of climate change to lead to disunity in case of a radical and hasty transition.
- An attempt to shift the policy agenda at COP-26 away from demand-side measures to supply-side pressure and restrictions, declaring coal the main “enemy” and casting any investment incentives for hydrocarbons as “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” has run into the opposition of the developing countries that need to address energy poverty and maintain economic growth.
- Power crunch in China and gas crunch in Europe are powerful reminders that energy transition is going to be costly and volatile and is going to lead to political upheavals.
- Elections will be lost by politicians who placed their bets on the green agenda but failed to deliver energy security.
- Russia’s energy strategy is evolving in response to climate change agenda but the official documents like ES-2035 are outdated and are no longer relevant. Russia’s recent policy guidance suggests the readiness for course corrections but also the intent to protect its vital interests. This results in pragmatic approach to energy transition based on Russia’s strategic strengths and free of ideological dogmas. At the same time, Russia’s leadership has realized that it must be actively involved in shaping the global climate agenda. Russia’s pledge of reaching net zero by 2060 will be achieved via a combination of processes, involving energy efficiency, greater role of natural gas combined with CCUS followed by a gradual introduction of hydrogen, new generation of nuclear, and increasing the absorption capacity of Russia’s forests.
The Northern Sea Route: A state priority in Russia’s strategy of delivering Arctic hydrocarbons to global markets
On November 24, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies published a new research paper by CCEIS' expert Vitaly Yermakov and Anastasia Yermakova -The Northern Sea Route: A state priority in Russia's strategy of delivering Arctic hydrocarbons to global markets.
"A new paradigm of U.S. foreign policy" - D. Suslov's article for "Valdai Discussion Club" (17.11.21)
Deputy Director of the CCEIS Dmitry Suslov described a new direction for the development of U.S. foreign policy focusing on Biden's historical role as a follower of Trump. However, Biden is using a more systematic approach to implementing the chosen paradigm than his predecessor.
The main theses:
- We see a rejection of the universalization of the American-centric world order- Change of the vector of U.S. foreign policy development to rivalry with global rivals - China and Russia, which later became a new paradigm
- The previous foreign policy course has been replaced by a struggle against transnational threats and changing rhetoric towards European allies to a more benevolent one
- The leading U.S. forces are aimed at deterring China, consolidating the anti-Chinese coalition, weakening the trend of rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing, and confrontation with Russia
- The U.S. strives to increase its presence, circle of partners, and military and political obligations in Asia